Security Analysis: Rising Sea Levels and Climate Change in Papua New Guinea

[Source: Facebook post by UNDP in PNG in 2020]

As a Pacific Island nation, PNG is particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of rising sea levels, including coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion, which have a cascading effect on infrastructure, human settlements, and food security. Rising sea levels are a major threat to PNG, affecting our national security, economic stability, and social wellbeing. This analysis looks at how rising sea levels affect PNG's national security, the national strategies put in place to address it, regional commitments under the Boe Declaration, and international legal frameworks. Lastly, recommendations will be given for future improvement.

Inclusion in the National Security Policy (NSP)

The negative impacts of rising sea levels is evident along the coastlines and low-lying islands of PNG causing severe disruption to human livelihoods and food security. Coastal provinces like Gulf has already experienced displacement due to salt-water intrusion and coastal erosion. Duncan Gabi, PNG’s leading climate change activist, described the displacement caused by sand erosion at Pariva Beach (Gulf) as a “humanitarian crisis that highlights PNG’s vulnerability to climate change” (Bush, 2024). PNG’s NSP explicitly recognized climate change as a non-traditional security threat, citing its impacts on human livelihoods (Department of Prime Minister & National Executive Council, 2013, p. 33).   

National Climate Change Strategies

PNG's National Climate Compatible Development Management Policy (2014) formulated under the Office of Climate Change and Development (OCCD), outlines adaptation and mitigation strategies against climate change, including sea-level rise. These include coastal early warning systems and mangrove planting as outlined in Part 1 (G), Adaptation strategy of the policy (Department of Environment and Conservation, 2014, p. 11). While well-structured and aligned with national plans, the NCCDMP lacks measurable adaptation targets, clear funding, and strong enforcement, particularly in extractive industries (UC Berkeley, 2018).

The National Adaptation Plan (NAP, 2022-2030), a gender-sensitive framework guided by the Climate Change (Management) Act, builds upon these efforts. Recognizing sea-level rise as a priority impacting all sectors (Climate Change and Development Authority, 2023, p.35), it aims for continuous, evidence-based adaptation across agriculture, health, transport, and infrastructure, aligning with Vision 2050.

Evaluation:

The NCCDMP provides a foundational framework but its age and identified weaknesses hinder effective implementation. The NAP offers a more current and strategic approach with a broader sectoral focus. However, its success depends on robust funding mechanisms, clear measurable targets, and effective enforcement across all industries to translate policy into tangible climate resilience against rising sea levels in Papua New Guinea.

These strategies depicts climate change efforts at the national level by strengthening institutional capacities and promoting community-based adaptation measures. However, the main challenges are limited resources and the need for greater community engagement. Overall, these two national strategies represent significant progress in addressing the security threat posed climate change, as well as adapting to rising sea levels.

Regional Level: The Boe Declaration

In the 21st century, Pacific states have become stronger and more independent in their foreign policy approaches compared to previous decades. While this shift is partly rooted in their historical experiences, their real strength and autonomy have emerged through regional unity, particularly under the shared identity of the “Blue Pacific.” This concept emphasizes the Pacific as a strategically important region composed of sovereign, “large ocean states.” Through this collective identity, Pacific nations have asserted themselves as significant global actors with authority over their territories and vast ocean resources. After years of consistent consensus decision-making among Pacific leaders, the Pacific Islands Forum adopted the Boe Declaration in 2018. This landmark agreement redefined what “security” means in the Pacific, including who should be protected, what threats they face, and how security should be achieved (Middleby & Tago, 2025). As Cain (2020, p. 32) notes, “The text of the Boe Declaration captures a revised and expanded picture of security in the Pacific context.” This new definition moves beyond traditional military threats to include non-traditional security challenges such as climate change, which is identified as the single greatest threat facing the region (Cain, 2020; Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, 2019). Among the environmental threats posed by climate change, rising sea levels present an especially existential challenge for low-lying Pacific Island nations, reinforcing their inclusion in the expanded security framework under the Boe Declaration.

International Level: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement

Rising sea levels is linked to two important international convention and agreement related to climate change in the international arena, which are the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement.

The UNFCCC is a framework that involves global efforts to mitigate, adapt and prevent climate change. Its aim is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere in order to prevent dangerous interferences or disruptions to the climate system (International Union for Conservation of Nature (n.d). UNFCCC article 7 talks about corporation between governmental, intergovernmental and non-governmental to provide services and information that is suitable to combat climate change. For instance, PNG is actively participating and fostering international corporation through the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) program.

Post Courier (2024) emphasized that PNG Climate Change and Development Authority has done a three-day training session which focused on the REDD+ Safeguards Information System (SIS) platform. The goal of this training is to clarify information based on SIS, capacity building. This shows PNG’s commitment on adhering to the UNFCCC to reduce carbon emissions which results in addressing rising sea levels.  Furthermore, there was a new funding model that was presented during the 28th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai (Pill, 2023). The fund aims to pay the loss and damage caused to countries who have suffered from the impacts of climate change. However, this raises concerns between developed and developing countries in terms of securing the fund, parties’ eligibility, distribution and how these funds should be spent. Hence, when countries are focusing on getting funds for damage and loss to benefit themselves it causes disunity between them instead of working together to combat climate change.

The Paris Agreement aims to collaborate with developed and developing countries in hopes and efforts of reducing global carbon emissions below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level in this Century. By implementing the Paris Agreement since 2020, member countries submit their national climate action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Through these plans, countries will outline the steps they will take to advocate on climate adaptation and mitigation strategies towards climate change issues. Following this, PNG submitted two of it’s NDCs since 2016 and the second NDC known as PNG Enhanced NDC, was submitted to the UNFCCC abiding by the conditions of the Paris Agreement and was submitted in 2020. Following this, PNG’s Enhanced NDC clearly articulates nine adaptation priority areas to climate change concerns, in line with a few of PNG’s National Climate Change Policies and strategies. Coastal Flooding and sea-level rise are noted as the first priority area under the first adaptation plan to have been supported over the years (Papua New Guinea’s Nationally Determined Contribution, 2020, p. 24). For instance, the Community-based-Mangrove-planting handbook was compiled by the OCCD. This handbook is a step-by-step guide to teach coastal communities on how to plant Mangroves and cater for them as nature’s resilience mechanism for coastal erosion and protection from rising sea level.

According to Villegas (2021), in commemoration of the World Environment Day, 600 children were involved in planting 700 mangroves along the coast of Riwo, Madang Province. This shows that PNG has been abiding by the adaptation action plans set by the Enhanced NDC 2020.

However, in terms of climate financing, most of the projects that are initiated to address the impacts of sea level rising such as; coastal erosion, damage to freshwater systems, coastal flooding and settlement relocation patterns are funded solely by NGOs like World Vision, UNDP, and countries like Australia under the AusAID and Adaptation Fund supported by the US. Hence, the country lacks proper institutional funding initiatives to regulate climate change funds under government bodies like the CCDA. In the event that, international donors pull out from climate financing can have a detrimental impact on the adaptation and mitigation efforts. For instance, Zhu-Maguire (2025) highlighted that Trump’s pull out from the Paris Agreement will have a significant impact on the Pacific Island Nations, as they face increased effects of climate change and more specifically, sea level rising concerns. This renowned national action taken by the US has prompted PNG to call out their actions as, “morally wrong and irresponsible” of neglecting their international norms and obligations to finance developing countries on funding to combat the effects of climate change issues.

Conclusively, this illustrates that PNG can only align to international conventions and legal binding treaties when there is a financial guarantee to address the impacts of sea level rise despite rising concerns affecting the environment and livelihoods of people.

 

Recommendations

1. Integrating traditional knowledge into education and climate policy is vital for national strategies. As George (2024, p. 13) highlights, “wide consultation is essential to gain full understanding of the most pressing security issues across the nation.” Ensuring alignment with traditional knowledge will strengthen the Pacific Way in regional climate discussions.
2. Boe declaration focuses on climate change as a non-traditional security threat however; it does not involve cultural and societal resilience as a factor that hinders community adaptation (Trundle, 2021). Therefore, integrating cultural resilience into regional climate security policies, through recognizing traditional knowledge and migration practices is vital for pacific countries in ensuring long-term sustainability and preservation of their identities.
3. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) has not equally distributed fund allocation by the Green Climate Fund as part of the UNFCCC (Mori, et al., 2019). Therefore, investing in climate adaptation projects in affected regions within the Pacific Island Nations like PNG facing severe climate threats such as rising sea level.

References

 

Bush, R. (2024, December 31). “Moving to the mountaintops”: Rising seas displace tens of thousands in Papua New Guinea. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/31/moving-to-the-mountaintops-rising-seas-displace-tens-of-thousands-in-papua-new-guinea

Cain, T. N. (2020). Let’s Hear It for the Boe. Security Challenges, 16(1), 32–36.

Climate Change and Development Authority. (2023). Papua New Guinea National Adaptation Plan. Papua New Guinea National Adaptation Plan – Climate Change and Development Authority

Climate Change and Development Authority. (2023). Community-based mangrove planting handbook: A step-by-step guide to implementing a mangrove rehabilitation project for the coastal communities of Papua New Guinea. https://ccda.gov.pg/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Community-based-Mangrove-Planting-Handbook.pdf

Department of Environment and Conservation. (2014). National Climate Compatible Development Management Policy. Government of Papua New Guinea.

Department of Prime Minister & National Executive Council. (2013). National Security Policy. Government of Papua New Guinea.

George, T. (2024). Pacific island security: What role can national security strategies play? https://pacificsecurity.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/DB82_Part2.pdf

Government of Papua New Guinea. (2020). Papua New Guinea enhanced nationally determined contribution. Regional Pacific NDC Hub. https://pacificndc.org/media/95

International Union for Conservation of Nature. (n.d). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. https://iucn.org/our-work/informing-policy/international-policy/un-framework-convention-climate-change-unfccc

Middleby, S., & Tago, L. K. T. (2025). The Boe Declaration. In J. Wallis, H. McNeill, J. Batley, & A. Powles (Eds.), Security Cooperation in the Pacific Islands: Politics, Priorities, and Pathways of the Regional Security Patchwork (pp. 30–45). Routledge.

Mori, A., Rahman, S. M., & Uddin, Md. N. (2019). Climate Financing Through the Adaptation Fund: What Determines Fund Allocation? The Journal of Environment & Development, 28(4), 366–385. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26978784

Post Courier. (2024, July 30). Climate change completes three day work shop. https://www.postcourier.com.pg/climate-change-completes-three-day-workshop/

Pill, M. (2023, August 21). Loss and damage: Thoughts on global climate fund reform. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/loss-damage-thoughts-global-climate-fund-reform

Trundle, A. (2021). Climate Resilience through sociocultural mobility: Reframing the Pacific's urban informal settlements as critical adaptation pathways. In P. Thomas & M. Keen (Eds.), Perspectives on Pacific Security: Future Currents (pp. 70-74). Australian National University.  

UC Berkeley. (2018). Climate crisis, displacement, and the right to stay | othering & belonging institute. Berkeley.edu. https://belonging.berkeley.edu/global-justice/climate-displacement

Villegas, M. P. (2021, November 21). The youth leads ecosystem restoration through mangrove planting. PNG Business News. https://www.pngbusinessnews.com/articles/2021/11/the-youth-leads-ecosystem-restoration-through-mangrove-planting

Zhu-Maguire, I. (2025, February 17). What the Pacific has said about Trump's Paris pull-out. Lowy Institute. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-pacific-has-said-about-trump-s-paris-pull-out

United Nations Development Programme in Papua New Guinea. (2019, November 25). With the support of UNDP and CSNU, Anna recently completed a training on safeguarding persons with disabilities from #GBV and #SARV. In honor of the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, we celebrate her achievement. [Photograph]. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/undpinpng/photos/a.1480865902193586/2614515235495308/?type=3